How to Bet on Brexit – A Step by Step Guide - Updated for 2019:
Making sure you get the best odds on your Brexit bets opens up potential for making money – whatever the politicians get up to in the Brexit negotiations process.
This guide to betting on Brexit takes you through the odds and options step-by-step. Here is what you will find below:
- The Different Brexit Bets available (deal / no-deal, date extensions, May’s fate and so on)
- Where to find the best bets and best Brexit odds
- How passions / strong opinions could provide profitable betting opportunities
- Placing your bets - includes how to withdraw your winnings!
A quick disclaimer before I go any further. Brexit involves strong passions on both sides – this page is firmly neutral. We all have opinions, only a website dedicated to providing information on the practical side of gambling is not the place for them!
Passions can and do affect odds (via the amount of money placed on each outcome) in many sporting events. Before you place any political bet, I recommend considering this aspect. Which ‘side’ is more likely to want to place bets? How would this affect the odds?
Many online bookies have one or two Brexit bets - I'm using Unibet for the examples below. This huge brand has a brilliant choice of bets, and always has the best odds too. You'll find the Brexit bets under 'Politics' (on the left side menu) then 'UK'.
Open up www.unibet.com/sports to see the latest odds as you go through this guide!
Betting on Brexit – Main Types of Bet Available
You’ll find a lot of different ways to bet on Brexit. Here are the three main ones:
- Will the UK leave the EU on March 29th? (straight yes / no)
- Will Article 50 be extended? (will the period before leaving be extended?)
- Will Teresa May still be Prime Minister before the UK leaves the EU?
I have covered each one in more detail below. There are some more betting options, which are related – though not specifically to do with Brexit.
- Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party? (assuming Teresa May steps down)
- Will there be another in / out referendum in the EU before the end of 2020? (elsewhere in Europe).
- General Election betting. The next election is on the 5th of May 2022, if you feel that Brexit could affect the outcome of this, then multiple betting options are available.
Brexit Bets #1 – Will the UK Leave on March 29th?
This is the simplest bet. It includes leaving with a deal or without one. Being a simple yes / no, you are not going to find huge odds in either directions. At the time of writing this, the ‘yes’ us an overwhelming favourite – at around 1/3 on (for every £1 you bet, you’ll get 33p profit if you are right).
For a ‘no’ result to happen, both the EU and UK would need to agree to extending the current transition period. Leaving without a deal would be a ‘yes’ – if the UK leaves it leaves!
See the latest odds at www.unibet.com/sports now!
Brexit Bets #2 – Will Article 50 Be Extended or Revoked?
This is a different twist on the Brexit yes / no. You can find bets on whether Article 50 will be revoked. That would mean Brexit has been stopped – and the UK will remain part of the European Union.
Conversely, you can find bets on whether Article 50 will be extended. As things stand, this will kick-in on March 29th.
These bets will cover 2019 only. If you get to the end of the year, then your bet loses. For example, if you bet that Article 50 will be revoked, and it is instead extended, then revoked at some point in 2020, your ‘revoke 2019’ bet will lose.
Brexit Bets #3 – The Fate of Teresa May
One way or another, the fate of the UK Prime Minister, Teresa May, is linked to the Brexit deal. There are several possible scenarios here. These include May voluntarily leaving as part of a deal with her party, being removed, or staying in place all the way through to the next general election.
Betting on May has odds which are subject to change based on the current political mood / manoeuvring.
The basic bets are whether May will still be the Prime Minster / Leader of the Conservative Party when the March 29th deadline comes along.
Where to Find the Best Brexit Bets?
Ironically, it is one of the biggest European bookmaking brands which has the best choice of Brexit Bets and the best odds. Don’t worry, Unibet welcome bets from the UK – and I’m sure will continue to do so via their UK Gambling Commission license regardless of the politics!
You can find the Brexit Bets under ‘Politics’ which is towards the bottom of the list on the left-hand side. This opens a screen which is divided by country. Brexit betting comes under ‘UK’.
Unibet are a huge brand who offer bets on everything from football to Strictly.
New players get a £20 rebate if your first bet loses (this depends on your country, and is subject to terms and conditions / change!).
See the range of Brexit Bets and enjoy your new player welcome bonus over at www.unibet.com/sports now!
How Passions and Strong Opinions Could Affect Brexit Odds?
In general terms, odds are created by the weight of money bet on a specific outcome. While bookies employ professionals to balance the books (and ensure a profit!), they do not always get things right.
Opportunities for profit should be seen in terms of ‘value’, and not simply being right about the outcome. You might feel passionately one way or the other, though if the odds on your preferred outcome don’t match the real probability – your long-term betting results are going to be poor.
I would hope that High Tech Gambling readers will be aware of this kind of bias.
Instead, you should be thinking about how the passions / biases of others might affect the odds on Brexit bets…
If you think one ‘side’ is far more passionate and so more likely to put money on their desired outcome – could that mean that the odds of that outcome are shorter than they should be?
How does that affect the overall balance / value of the market?
It is difficult to say much more without delving into the politics… so I will leave it to you to come to your own conclusions!
Step-By-Step: Placing a Bet on Brexit
This section is for readers that are not familiar with betting online – and would like to place a Brexit bet safely.
There are 4 steps. These include getting your winnings back out. This is not only positive thinking, it affects how you make the initial deposit! I have assumed that readers from the UK and Ireland will be most interested in Brexit betting. If you are elsewhere then the main steps are the same, with local deposit and withdrawal methods possible.
Brexit Betting Step by Step:
- Go to www.unibet.com and register your account (takes less than a minute - you’ll need to verify your e-mail)
- Make a deposit. Credit and debit cards are quick and easy, if you prefer then PayPal (or similar systems like Skrill or Neteller) are secure alternatives. Many country=specific alternatives are offered.
- From the main betting screen follow the left-hand menu down until you find ‘Politics’. You will then see countries listed on the main screen, choose UK and you’ll see Brexit listed here.
- Choose your bet type and outcome (you can switch between fractional and decimal odds) and add to your bet-slip which will pop-up on the bottom right.
- When your bets are complete, confirm on your bet-slip and your bet is placed.
- When it comes time to withdraw profits, you’ll need to verify your id. Prepare for this in advance by adding accurate information when you register.
That is all there is to it.
I’m willing to bet that betting on Brexit is a lot simpler than the politics / politicians sorting it all out… then again, let’s not go down that road!
For the best Brexit Bets, head over to www.unibet.com/sports now!