Or to put it another way… the marketing geniuses behind Irish bookmaker Paddy Power just took a gamble that paying out $1 million early is more than worth the free publicity! (Yeah, I know, I’m reporting it here too!).
Odds of a Hilary Clinton victory in the upcoming presidential election have reached the point where the markets are almost certain she will win. Paddy Power have decided to pay out some 6,000 punters early – at an average of £170 each. If there is an unlikely turn around, this could prove costly to the sportsbook, which would then need to pay out again separately for Donald Trump.
What is the EV of the Early Payout?
With just £1 million in total liabilities – and spots on national news, articles in national newspapers and shares on social media exploding in many countries – Paddy Power looks to have a great bet.
From the value betting perspective, even if they get it wrong and Mr Trump does make a come-back, the deal is still a good one. There are 2 ways of looking at this.
How about a 10% chance of a turn-around (or even 20%, just to look at the numbers).
This would put the expected risk of the early payout at just £100,000 to £200,000 depending on what number you choose.
All that publicity for an average of £150,000 expected value – amazing returns!
The second factor is this… what if they are wrong and end up paying out on Trump. There is going to be a lot more publicity. Sure, this will have a ‘doh!’ slant to it – though at the same time it will remind people of Paddy Power and is bound to generate more business.
Paddy Power Got it Wrong Before
This bookie has paid out early twice before on the premiership title race, only to see Man United pipped to the post in the final game. I wonder how the math of that, compared to the exposure of the brand, looked?
Some news services have also noted that the lead of Hilary Clinton is lower than the lead enjoyed by the ‘Remain’ camp in the Brexit vote at a similar time before the referendum. Paddy Power must be relieved that they did not also pay out early on that one!
About Paddy Power
This is the biggest Irish sportsbook, and was formed when 3 land-based Irish bookies decided to cooperate and build a bigger business back in 1988. Thanks to their innovative marketing, this is now one of the biggest European brands, with shops in their native Ireland and in the UK.
While Paddy Power are best known for their sportsbook – this is in fact a huge gambling portal which offers many different types of gambling. They have a poker room (which is part of the iPoker Network) and giant casino. You can find slots from PlayTech and many other big software houses, including big jackpot slots from many of the best known game creators.
While I can’t guarantee you’ll enjoy any early payouts – I can assure you that Paddy Power look after their players and bettors really well. This covers bonuses and promos as well as their first-class service.
See the latest offers at www.paddypower.com for yourself now!