NFL Player Props

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NFL Player PropsThe NFL is one of the world’s most popular sports and attracts billions of dollars in gambling revenue each and every year. There are many types of bets available on each and every NFL game, but one of the largest growing betting markets is the player props. These are bets based on an individual player’s performance, be it passing yards, rushing yards or receiving yards or whether a player will score a touchdown.

In this guide I take a look at how NFL prop bets work and the types of bets you’ll place. I’ll then move onto each position and offer some advice on how to find an edge over the sportsbook for each.

Prop Bet Types

Prop bets can be wide and varied, and never more so as when we reach the build up to the Super Bowl. However, for regular season games, you’ll find the same types of prop bets on each game. Some gambling sites will offer these prop bets on all regular season games, while others will offer them on the televised games, which is usually four games per week (one Thursday night game, two on Sunday and the Monday night game). Many sites will offer the following market:

  • Will a Quarterback throw for over/under X number of yards?
  • Will a running back rush for over/under X number of yards?
  • Will a wide receiver have over/under X number of yards receiving?

All three of these markets will be set up so that there is a roughly equal chance of both sides of the bet winning, meaning you’ll usually receive the same odds about both sides (around 10/11 if using fractional odds, 1.91 if using decimal or -110 if using American style odds).

It should be stated that for each of these bets, only the yardage gained when doing the specified activity will count. For example, a running back that runs for 107 yards and makes 4 catches for 51 yards will only have 107 yards to count towards his yardage.

Position by Position Guide

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks will have a market based on the number of yards they’ll pass for. When assessing this market, you should first consider how many yards he averages per game. This is a good starting point, but you’ll have to delve much deeper than this. Next you should consider if he performs better at home or on the road – many QB’s do perform better at home, so check out how much better per game they are. Now consider the strength of the opposition. The first thing you’ll consider is how good the opposition defense is against the pass, and obviously a poorer than average defense might imply the player will gain more yards than might normally be expected. You should also consider the opposition as a whole, as if they have a poor offense, it will mean that your quarterback might spend more time on the field, meaning more yards again. Finally you should consider the weather. A game played in driving wind will be awful for a quarterback, so much so that the head coach will probably put the ball into the hands of a running back much more than often – adverse weather will have a negative effect on the yardage. If the game is played indoors, the QB will have no problems.

Having considered all of these aspects, come up with a number that you expect the player to achieve, and then compare it to the line set by the books, and back the appropriate side – the further out you are, the more confident you should be.

Running Backs

You’ll consider many of the same aspects for running backs – such as how he performs on average and if he is any better when playing at home. The opposition should also be considered as a whole, along with the how the defense performs against the rush. You should also consider the players playing alongside him – most teams will have a running back that carries most of the workload, while some teams will share this out amongst two or more players. This can be very important if a key player is returning from injury, as this might mean that the named running back will see a lot less of the ball than perhaps thought.  As touched on when discussing the quarterback position, adverse weather might be advantageous to the running back.

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Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The performance of the receivers is very much linked to that of the quarterback – as they will have a portion of the quarterback’s yards, and if the quarterback has a bad game, so will his receivers. As such, you’ll use many of the same factors to consider this player’s performance. As well as considering how many catches a player makes per game, also look at how often the player is targeted for catches – if a player is targeted often and is up against a weak defensive player (a cornerback for the wide receiver) it might mean additional catches and yards.

Where Can I find this Information?

Best Sportsbook for NFL PropsThere are a lot of factors to consider, and it might take some time to come to a conclusion, but the more work you put in, the better off you will be. You’ll be able to find all of this info at a number of US based sports websites, although I would recommend the following site, which is packed with all of the information you need:  http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

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