Profit in Gambling Through Value 2

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Part 2 - Specializing and Beating the Bookmakers at their own Game

This is the second in a 3 part series focusing on value betting. You can read the first part here. This week I cover specializing, and then explain how you can form your own book and use it to grab an edge.

Profit in Gambling Through Value – How do I beat the Bookies by Specializing?

Specializing and Beating the Bookmakers at their own GameConsider how a bookmaker / sportsbook might be staffed. As well as the many people running the operation, they’ll have a team of odds compilers whose sole job is to work out the odds and lines for each and every event. The bookmaker will want to concentrate their efforts on markets where they have the most money coming in (and therefore the most money to be made) so the majority of the staff will be working on these markets. Then consider some of the smaller markets.  Depending on the size of the bookmaker they may have one person covering a sport, or even one person covering more than one sport. As they are smaller markets, the firm is not going to make a lot of money on this market anyway, and conversely, not going to take much of a hit either, so they can spend less time making sure these lines are correct.

So, as a gambler you can take advantage of this situation simply by specializing on a certain sport, and beating the bookies that way. I’ll give you an example:

You consider yourself an expert in lower league soccer – specifically the Conference South League in England. You go to games regularly and you know exactly how well many teams are playing, you know the injury situation at many teams and you regularly post in and read a non-league forum. How will a bookmaker look at these markets? Will they have people going to games, and have the same feel as you? I very much doubt it - they will probably use a combination of the league table and current form to set their odds. Who has the edge here? You do. A big edge – you’re the expert here, not the Sportsbook.

Now consider a slightly different situation. You have great knowledge of the English Premier League, and like the Conference South expert, you know everything about it. This situation is completely different, as your expertise here will be matched by the Sportsbook, they take more money on this market than any other in soccer, so they will spend a lot of time and manpower making sure the odds are correct. If you have an edge here, it will be a tiny one.

Beating the Bookies by Making Your Own Book

Beating the Bookies by Making Your Own BookSo, it’s OK being an expert in a sport, but how do you turn it to your advantage? The best way is to make your own book on an event, and then compare it to the bookmakers odds. Here is an example of how you do this:

There is a game this afternoon in the Conference South. Dover are playing at home to Staines Town. Having spent some time considering all the aspects of the game, you come to the conclusion that the chances of each outcome are as follows:

Dover win       50%

Draw                30%

Staines win     20%

Having worked out the probabilities, we can change these outcomes into odds. We do this by simply dividing 100 by each probability.

Dover win       100% / 50% = 2.00

Draw                100% / 30% = 3.33

Staines win     100% / 20% = 5.00

Then our next step is to compare the odds we have to the odds of the Bookmaker.

Dover win       2.00 Bookmakers odds are 1.83

Draw                3.33 Bookmakers odds are 3.60

Staines win     5.00 Bookmakers odds are 3.75

Here, as you can see, you are being offered shorter odds on both Dover and Staines Town winning than you had worked out. You want to back Dover at 2.00 or above, and Staines at 5.00 and above, but in both cases the Bookmaker is offering you less, so you leave these two outcomes alone. However, when it comes to the draw, you consider the fair odds to be 3.33, yet the firm is offering you 3.6 – here you are gaining value, so on this market the draw should be your bet. Remember, you’re the expert here, so back your own judgment, and beat the bookies at their own game.

This system works for any event, simply work out a percentage chance for every outcome (there could be just two outcomes like in a tennis match, or over a hundred in a golf tournament, the calculation is the same), convert the probabilities to odds and then compare to the actual odds – if you are gaining value, then go ahead and back it.

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Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

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Profit in Gambling through Value – Part 2 Overview

This week we saw how specializing in a sport can be advantageous to your betting, and how to form your own odds on a market. Next week, we’ll look at bankroll management and staking plans to make sure you can maximize that edge.

Once you have understood the concepts of value and different ways to give yourself an edge, it is time to find ways of maximizing your profits. Exchange betting offers many possibilities for the advanced bettor - here is a selection of the detailed guides you will find here at High Tech Gambling.

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