Profit in Gambling through Value Part 5

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Evaluating the Odds of a Sporting Event Accurately

So far in this series we have looked at what value is, how to evaluate value, bankroll management techniques and the use of bonuses and offers to enhance your value. This final part of the series looks gives a technique you can use to help you in evaluating the odds of a sporting event before it begins, before looking at how this method can be expanded into a much larger scale.

Evaluating Accurate Odds

Gambling through ValueIt is impossible to work out the exact odds of a sporting event before it starts, simply due to the fact that there are so many variables that might affect the event. Fortunately however, to win at gambling you don’t have to know the ‘exact’ odds, you only have to be better than the bookmakers at working out these odds.

Many people will see bookmakers odds first and their view of the game might immediately be biased by what they have seen, so I would suggest avoiding these odds until you have studied an event yourself. When studying an event, I will start by writing down all of the factors that I think will have an effect on the outcome, as well as coming up with a base figure which can be calculated using past performances of the team player. Here is an example:

I decide to evaluate the odds of a league two football match – specifically focusing on the ‘win’ odds of the home team. The factors I use to do this might include long term form, short term from,  team news, player fitness, previous history of the fixture, the weather, number of days rest between games, transfers  and many others (there is no limit to the number of factors you could use – the more the better). I then work out a base figure for the game. To do this I’ll use the league table. I note that the home team win 60% of their home games and the away team lose 50% of their away games, so I start out with a base figure of 55% (average of the two).

I then decide to put a value on each of the factors, based upon how important I deem them to be. For example, I might deem the team news factor to be very important at 25%, the previous history of the fixture less important at 10% and the weather even less at 5%. I then study each of the categories for both teams.

Having looked at the team news, the home team seem to be fully fit, but the away team are missing a couple of regulars, although these regulars are not particular stars of the team. Therefore I decide the home team has an edge here, but not a big one – so although allowing 25% for this factor, I’ll only actually give the home team 5% here (if the away team were ravaged by injuries, this would be much higher).

I would now adjust the base figure from 55% by 5%. To do this I will multiply 55% by 1.05 (and not add 5% to 55%) to have a new figure of 57.75%. I will then go through all of the other factors I have deemed important, and adjust the base figure (either up or down) each time. When you have included all of the factors, you’ll have a final figure – and this is the figure you will use to evaluate the odds. In this game my final figure came out to be 56.8%. I simply divide 100 by this figure to receive the decimal odds. Here the odds come out at 1.76.

This basic model can be used at all sports. For example, when evaluating a tennis match, you can get the base odds for the player from their win/loss record, and then introduce all of the other factors you might deem to be important to the match.

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Past Analysis

Evaluating Accurate OddsUsing the above method is a very good starting point and will see you gain an edge, particularly on sports that bookmakers won’t perhaps have too many staff working on (bookmakers will concentrate their staffing around the sports that most people are betting on, so you can find an edge if betting on something less popular – league two football used above as an example). However, you can take the method much further, by calculating the ‘real’ impact of each of the factors (instead of making an estimation) by looking at past history. For example, you could set up a database and ask the question ‘How often does a team win at home if they have won their last two home games?’ and receive an exact answer. Obviously the bigger the database and the more factors you can evaluate exactly, the better your model will become – however this will obviously take you into the realm of spending a lot of time and money on building a model.

Profit in Gambling through Value

That brings us to the end of the series and hopefully now you’ll be better equipped in understanding why value is important, how to spot value and capitalizing on these situations when they arrive. Winning at gambling is not a quick and easy process – if it were everyone would be doing it, but if you put the work in and follow the advice given, there is no reason for your gambling not to be successful.

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