Profiting from Bias in Gambling

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How Bias can have an Effect in Gambling and Taking Advantage

Profiting from Bias in GamblingThere are many instances in all forms of gambling where bias towards a certain team, player or event can have a huge effect on the betting market – in many instances skewing the market so much that profitable situations arise. There are other instances where personal bias can have a negative effect on your gambling, as gamblers can commonly let their heart rule their head.

In this article I look at the many ways bias can influence the betting markets. Firstly I take a look at how a team’s or an individual’s popularity can skew the markets and at profits that can be made when little known competitors are playing. Next, I consider how the general betting public views a good attacking team against a good defensive team. Following this I take a look at the gamblers fallacy and how it works in reverse when it comes to sport. The article ends with a look at taking an objective view of sport, especially when your favorite team is involved, and not letting hindsight get in the way.

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Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

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How Popularity can change the Odds

The general betting public love betting on teams or players that hit the headlines. The more column inches a team/player takes up on the sports pages of a newspaper, the more money a sportsbook will take on the team/player. This is particularly true when it comes to the biggest games or events in sport, where the build-up might be all about one team or player.  

A prime example of this was in early 2014 in the build up to the Super Bowl. This game was taking place between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Throughout the regular season and the playoffs, one man had dominated the year – the Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, and every neutral sports fan in the US wanted Manning to win another Super Bowl ring. The early Vegas lines however, told a different story – the Seattle Seahawks had the edge, the experts considering the Seahawks  the slightly better team. In the two weeks leading up to the game, the odds changed immensely. By the day of the game the Broncos were favored by 3 points by the sportsbooks, this move fuelled by the weight of general public money on Manning and the Broncos. For the smart gambler, there was only one option here – back the Seahawks. The experts had already considered them as the best team, yet you could get a 3 point start as well, this was a no-brainer. The Seahawks won the game 43-8.

Look for situations in the bigger televised games which will attract a lot of money, where much of the press attention is on or around a popular player or a team – and then go against the crowd.

There are occasions in sport when there is an almost unknown opponent taking on a well-known team or individual. Many of the general betting public will take a view that the big name MUST win against the opponent and back them blindly. Spending some time looking at these match-ups can pay dividends, as you’ll find some great value spots, where the unknown team will be overpriced. Here are three prime examples:

March Madness - You’ll find many games in the annual college basketball championship where a team from a bigger conference will take on a lesser known team. Much of the money will come in for the ‘name’ team, and these spots can be profitable. Focus on the smaller teams when doing your research, and you’ll pick out these best spots.

European Soccer Matches – You’ll find many games throughout the season between a big name soccer team against a so called minnow, especially during the qualifiers for the Champions League and the Europa League. Don’t just assume that a team from Italy will beat that unknown team from Estonia. Take a good look at the game and understand that the Estonian known team might be more up for the game and the Italian team might be resting key players. You’ll find some great spots value spots in these games.

Tennis – ATP and WTA tour – There are many events throughout the year, and the top players will want to be at their best for the biggest events such as the Grand Slams. This leads to occasions in the smaller events where a player might not be quite as focused as they should be, and you’ll find value spots on occasions by backing the lesser known opponents.

Attacking v Defending Bias

There is nothing better in sport than watching a highly entertaining attacking team or player, these games being the ones you talk about and that stick in the memory. Conversely, a team orplayer with the opposite approach, who look to stifle their opponents can be somewhat forgettable, and you’ll probably not go out of your way to even watch them. There are many situations where this can cause a big bias in the odds, the attacking team being too short as the money is piling in and value can be found on the team with great defensive abilities. This is especially the case in the post season of the big North American sports – it may seem something of a cliché, but it is a fact that “Defenses win Championships”. Overall, you’ll generally find more value on a good defensive team/player than a good attacking one.

Gamblers Fallacy

Gamblers BiasThe gamblers fallacy is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a certain period, then it will occur less frequently as a result. A prime example of this happened in Monte Carlo in 1913, when the ball landed in black 26 times in a row at a roulette table. Gamblers lost millions in the mistaken belief that the ball is more likely to land on red because of this incredible run.

In sport however, the reverse applies. If a team or individual is winning on a consistent basis, perhaps on a long run of wins, the expectation is that it will continue, and many will back this assertion. This can lead to these teams/players being very much underpriced. An example of this took place in September 1996 at Ascot racecourse when Italian jockey Frankie Dettori had a day he’ll never forget. Dettori had seven rides and incredibly won each of his first six races. The final race of the day saw Dettori ride Fujiyama Crest, a horse that was rated as 12/1 chance at the start of the day. Due to the earlier success, the horse became the 2/1 favorite – a price considered by many to be the worst value bet in the history of sport (Fujiyama Crest did indeed win, but this doesn’t change the fact that the horse was very much underpriced). Look for these spots where the price becomes artificially low on a team or individual and back the opposition.

Head versus Heart

When your favorite team is involved, it’s very difficult to be truly objective. Many  gamblers will over-estimate the ability of their own team, whilst the more pessimistic will actually go the other way, and presume their team will lose. Whichever way you go will have a negative effect on your gambling.

The traditional advice to counter this is to suggest leaving the games involving your own team out when placing a wager; however this shouldn’t necessarily be the case. Consider, your favorite team is the team you are most knowledgeable about, and this SHOULD give you an edge. I’d suggest spending time studying the opposition before each game, and attempting to take an objective view. Keep records on how you are performing, and if it’s working then carry on. Of course, this would require you on occasions to place a bet on the team facing your favorite team, so if this is something you wouldn’t want to do, then simply leave your team out of all of your betting.

Hindsight

How Bias can have an Effect in GamblingHindsight can cause a lot of trouble in gambling. Consider a situation where you place a bet on a team, certain that they’ll win and certain that you are receiving value. You watch the game, and despite dominating the game, the team you backed failed to win after being particularly unlucky. After the game doubts creep in and you consider that perhaps the team weren’t as good as you thought they were. This can create a bias in your own mind where you might shy away from backing them the next time around or from using the same system you used to evaluate this bet, despite the original bet being fine and simply unlucky. Look at games objectively after they have finished – on many occasions you’ll find that the bet was indeed a good one, so don’t let that bias creep in.

Bias in Gambling – Overview

There are many ways in which bias in sport can affect gambling, most of them involving the general betting public plumping for a bigger or more popular name over a lesser known name. Look out for these spots in all sports and you’ll find that betting against the majority view will be very beneficial to your bankroll in the long run.

Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

Planet Mark's Top Rec: There are a lot of good reasons why Bovada are the number #1 US friendly sportsbook. Look beyond the big welcome bonus and you'll find the real magic...

Bovada have a huge range of markets (especially when it comes to the bigger events), competitive lines and super-easy deposits / withdrawals.

The killer reason is the promos – you’ll find their list of offers for regular bettors unrivalled anywhere online. Check out www.bovada.lv to see the latest deals for yourself now!

Bovada Sportsbook

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