Psychology of Sport Betting

0
No votes yet

Sports Betting Psychology Part One – Dealing with Randomness

Psychology of Sport BettingAfter the positive feedback from the last series of posts (covering Value Betting), here is a brand new series looking into the important topic of sports betting Psychology. Once you understand the natural biases which can lead to mistakes when you bet, you'll be in a powerful position to overcome them.

There are many facets when it comes to being a successful gambler. Firstly you’ll need a good knowledge of the sport in question, with the ability to look at an event/ game/ tournament and have a good feel for what the correct odds should be. Secondly you’ll need some dedication and patience, putting in the hard work and having the restraint to wait for the right bet to come along. Thirdly you’ll also need a good staking plan, otherwise all your work could go to dust with one oversized bet.

However one area of gambling which isn’t talked about much is the psychology of gambling and how it can affect your performance. This series of articles starts with a look at randomness. First up, you’ll read about exactly what randomness is in sport. Then you’ll see an example of how randomness can make you come to conclusions that are clearly wrong when it comes to betting. The article ends with a guide to dealing with randomness in the right way.

Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

Planet Mark's Top Rec: There are a lot of good reasons why Bovada are the number #1 US friendly sportsbook. Look beyond the big welcome bonus and you'll find the real magic...

Bovada have a huge range of markets (especially when it comes to the bigger events), competitive lines and super-easy deposits / withdrawals.

The killer reason is the promos – you’ll find their list of offers for regular bettors unrivalled anywhere online. Check out www.bovada.lv to see the latest deals for yourself now!

Bovada Sportsbook

Quantifying Randomness in Sport?

A sporting event will be affected by a number of factors. These might include the fitness of the participants, the weather conditions, the playing surface, how many hours sleep a key player has had or the size of their breakfast. Whatever factors there are, it’s a fact that no two sporting events will ever be the same. For example, if two football teams were to meet on consecutive weekends, with the same line ups, and the same preparation and even if the weather was identical, the matches would be completely different. Although it’s possible the score line would be the same, every other facet of the match would be different – the goals would be scored by different players from other parts of the pitch, other players would be booked and maybe injured and literally every single pass in each of the matches would be unique. This is not actually randomness in action – its chaos theory, where every tiny difference can change a match completely. In this match for example, a striker having a haircut in midweek might mean the ball travels an inch to the left of where it would have done on a long range header, meaning the keeper parries it three inches right of where he would have done, meaning that the poacher in the six yard box scuffs his opportunity – without the haircut it’s a clean contact and they score!

Although not actually random, there are literally millions of factors that can affect any sporting event, and predicting these with any great certainty is impossible, so to all intents and purposes, every sporting event is has a huge element of randomness.

How Randomness Can Lead to Mistakes

How Randomness Can Lead to Mistakes in SportsbettingImagine you found yourself betting with the world’s worst gambler. He says he’ll pay you 6/1 every time you roll a six on a dice. This is fantastic for you - a rare occasion when you know for a fact that the odds are completely in your favour. If, as expected, you roll a six one in six times, you’ll pick up 7 units but it will only cost you 6 units. You have a great betting edge here.

If as expected, you do make a nice profit, then you walk away happy in the knowledge that you got one over the guy.

However, what happens when you roll the dice ten times and a six doesn’t appear? For the vast majority of gamblers doubts will creep in. Is the die really random? Am I making some kind of mistake here? Maybe I should just stop as I’m just unlucky? Has this bookmaker got golden balls? At this point, many gamblers will actually stop because of these doubts.

Dealing with Randomness Correctly

In the example above, despite having a big edge, people stopped because it wasn’t going right. In sports betting you’ll have exactly the same scenario. You might have studied a game thoroughly and come to a conclusion that a bookmaker is well out with their pricing, so bet on the game accordingly. The game didn’t go to plan and the bet lost. At this point you might start second guessing yourself. The fact is, your conclusion might have been a perfectly valid one and using the same ideas might see you make a huge profit in the long run, but you end up quitting and trying something different on the basis of just one game or a handful of games where randomness (or chaos) went against you.

Some gamblers will actually have a long term winning system and still second guess themselves in the middle of a bad run.

The fact is, due to randomness, bad runs are going to happen. Good runs will also happen. If you think you have an edge at a particular sport, stick with it. When the first loss happens, stick with it. When that losing run starts stick with it again. If you have an edge, you will always win in the long run.

Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

Planet Mark's Top Rec:

32Red are giving the old 'High Street Bookies' sports betting brands some real trouble in 2019.

This very slick site offers top-rated odds; a huge range of bets and a big list of player promotions (really, check the latest before you bet elsewhere). This now includes an excellent 100% profit boost offer for all new players.

32Red are my go-to betting site, you’ll quickly find out why once you see www.32red.com/sports for yourself - check them now!

 

30181

 

Planet Mark's Top Rec: There are a lot of good reasons why Bovada are the number #1 US friendly sportsbook. Look beyond the big welcome bonus and you'll find the real magic...

Bovada have a huge range of markets (especially when it comes to the bigger events), competitive lines and super-easy deposits / withdrawals.

The killer reason is the promos – you’ll find their list of offers for regular bettors unrivalled anywhere online. Check out www.bovada.lv to see the latest deals for yourself now!

Bovada Sportsbook

More Sport Betting Strategy Articles: