When you Should be Betting the Over in Totals Markets?
Totals, or over/under betting is considered by many to be one of the best ways of gambling on sports betting. Sportsbooks have commonly been known to offer lower limits on these types of bets, indicating that the smart bettor can have an edge. Here are the top 5 reasons that could make you consider betting the over.
You’ll find a focus on soccer and the NFL in this guide. Keep in mind that these factors can play a role in many different sports. If you are new to totals betting, then my over / under betting guide is a great place to start.
I’ll assume you are already comparing sportsbooks for the best lines / odds. If not, then you are leaving money on the table each time you bet.
I recommend you compare your current book(s) to the lines on the biggest offshore betting site www.bovada.lv – with more than 10 years of retaining savvy bettors, they must be doing something right (hint: it’s a combination of generous lines and big bonuses).
When to Bet the Over: How Weather Affects Scoring
Calm weather conditions can have a major impact on the totals, especially in a sport such as football. The calmer the conditions, the more likely teams are going to throw the ball, which naturally leads to higher scoring games. If teams are running the ball all of the time, the clock is eaten up that much quicker.
Calm conditions will also mean a higher rate of pass completion, meaning the ball moves down the field that much quicker, leading to more scoring opportunities. Conditions in sports such as soccer are not quite as important, although rainy conditions turning the playing surface muddy can have an effect, negating the skills of the flair attacking players and making it easier to defend.
If the weather is forecast to be wild when the lines are published, then look much calmer going into match-day, you could have found a great opportunity to profit from betting the over.
Take a Look at the Late Game Scenarios
One good tip for betting totals is to consider what the late stages of the game might be like. How do the teams react in soccer, for example, when they go one goal ahead? Some teams will naturally shut up shop, and aim to keep that one goal lead, while others will try to kill the game off by scoring again.
Conversely, some defenses are fine until the first goal goes in and then collapse and these are the teams that you want to identify in betting the over.
In football, you have to consider how close the game might be. There is nothing more infuriating than betting the over and then seeing a team with a big lead in a scoring position running down the clock to the end. If betting the over, you’re more likely to have a truly high scoring game if both teams are close, and neither team is looking to run down the clock till very late on.
Betting the Over for Entertainment
While this reason won’t give you any financial gain, betting the over is that much more entertaining than betting the under. Having placed the wager you can cheer every touchdown, goal, point or try, safe in the knowledge that every time they happen, you’re getting closer to your target. Conversely, when you’re betting the under, you’ll be cheering on the mundane – you’ll want goal-line stoppages, long periods of not much action and effectively the most exciting players on any team to fail in doing their job. Betting the over is certainly more fun.
Total Analysis Will Find Overs Betting Opportunities
Some individuals when betting can get caught in a trap of only looking at one side of the coin. For example, many will know all about their own team, but won’t know as much about the opposition.
Someone else might know a lot about the offensive players on a team but won’t know too much about a defense. Not doing your research can lead you to missing opportunities. For example, you might support an NFL team whose defense is good against the pass, but terrible defending rushing plays.
In that scenario you should certainly be checking out the opposition offence. If they are effective rushing, they are going to score points. You might consider a game with two average offenses might be a low scoring game, but that won’t be the case if the defenses are worse than average.
Effects of Injuries to Key Players on Totals Bets
One of the best ways to take advantage when totals betting is to look out for injuries. Obviously, you’ll want injuries on the key defensive positions, making the offences or the attacking player’s lives easier.
In soccer, the line-ups are invariably announced around an hour before kick-off, so it can be good to make sure you can access those teams as soon as possible. Sportsbooks will also react to team news, so you’ll need to be quick. One thing to consider with injuries, is just how much effect they will have. The main question you’ll need to ask is – how good is the back up? If there is a marked difference in ability, that’s when you should be looking at betting the over.
Wrapping Up: Top Reasons to Bet the Over
Over and under betting is a fascinating way of gambling on a sporting event. Instead of simply cheering on one of the teams, you’ll be looking at the game with a different angle, where the tactics of the game can come that much more to the fore. Use some of the advice above and you can make it pay!
Before you place another Over bet (or under!), check out the great lines at the long-running Bovada over at www.bovada.lv
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